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Educated guess
01
a guess that is made according to one's experience or knowledge thus is more likely to be true
Example
The detective made an educated guess about the suspect's motive.
His educated guess about the market trends was supported by recent data.
Using historical data, the analyst made an educated guess on future sales.
Based on her experience, she made an educated guess about the project's completion date.
The scientist's educated guess about the experiment's outcome proved accurate.